Technical Analysis and Market Factors Influencing the Aluminium Price Trend (2024–2025)

Greetings Professionals,

I’d like to initiate a data-backed discussion around the Aluminium Price Trend, particularly focusing on the recent volatility observed from late 2024 into Q2 2025.

🧾 Current Price Overview (as of June 2025):
LME Aluminium is trading in the range of $2,350–$2,450/MT, rebounding slightly after a downward correction seen earlier this year. This recovery is largely attributed to short-term supply disruptions and stronger-than-expected industrial demand in East Asia.

🔍 Technical Indicators & Price Drivers:

• MACD & RSI Trends: MACD crossover suggests a potential bullish momentum forming; however, RSI near 60 hints at a slightly overbought zone.
• 50-DMA vs. 200-DMA: Aluminium recently broke above its 50-day moving average, which is typically a positive signal for medium-term price strength.
• Inventory Levels: LME warehouse stocks have dropped nearly 8% YoY, suggesting tightening global supply.

⚙️ Fundamental Factors at Play:

• Chinese Output Controls: Ongoing emission caps in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia have constrained smelting capacity, tightening global supply.
• Energy Prices: Since aluminium is an energy-intensive metal, fluctuations in electricity costs (especially coal and hydro) in major production hubs are impacting production economics.
• Demand from EV and Renewable Sectors: The surge in lightweight metal demand for electric vehicles, battery casings, and solar infrastructure continues to offer price support.
• Geopolitical Supply Chain Risks: Export bans, tariffs, and Red Sea disruptions have further added to cost structure instability in Europe and South Asia.

📊 Price Forecast (H2 2025 Outlook):
Most technical models and macroeconomic aluminium forecasts suggest a consolidation range of $2,300–$2,500/MT, barring any major economic shocks. However, inflationary pressures in the US and production bottlenecks in Asia may push prices toward the upper end of this band.

🔧 Strategic Recommendations:
For buyers: Consider hedging contracts or long-term sourcing from diversified suppliers.
For manufacturers: Monitor input energy price trends and explore aluminum scrap reuse to offset cost volatility.

📣 I’m keen to hear from others in the metals procurement or commodity trading space:

• What are your current sourcing strategies for aluminium?
• Are you factoring in carbon tariffs or ESG premiums into your cost models?

Let’s pool our insights and forecasts to enhance our strategic planning for the upcoming quarters.

Best regards,
Suraj Jha

Commodity Analyst | Metals Procurement Lead